Is the World’s Food System Ready for a Super El Niño?

A strong El Niño could make growing food harder in many parts of the world this year. This natural climate pattern brings warmer surface waters to the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which in turn releases more heat into the atmosphere and shifts rainfall, wind, and storm patterns. El Niño can worsen heat and drought in some places and raise the risk of severe flooding in others. These changes could add more pressure to a global food system already strained by climate change, conflict, fuel costs, and fertilizer shortages.

This year’s El Niño could arrive at a difficult time. The World Meteorological Organization is predicting an 80% chance of an El Niño event beginning before August, rising to 90% by November. Forecasts also suggest that this El Niño could be moderate to strong, adding to what is already likely to be a year of record heat following the 11 warmest years on record. This extra heat can dry soils faster, increase water stress, and make droughts more damaging for crops and livestock.

The global food system, in particular, is also facing political and economic pressure. The ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict has raised concerns about the availability and price of fuel, fertilizer, shipping, and food. 

When fuel and fertilizer become more expensive or harder to get, farmers may face difficult choices. Some farmers may grow crops on less land to save money. Others may cut back on fertilizer, even if it lowers crop yields. Farmers may also have a harder time storing, moving, or selling their products.

When El Niño Reaches the Dinner Table 

El Niño changes where rain falls. Wetter conditions often affect parts of the southern United States, southern South America, East Africa, and Central Asia. At the same time, hotter and drier weather can affect Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, and parts of South and Southeast Asia.

These changes can seriously impact agriculture. Persistent drought leads to reduced crop yields, delayed planting, shrinking pasturelands, and limited irrigation water. The intense heat stress linked to El Niño may also damage crops during key growth stages and lower milk, meat, and egg production from livestock.

Rain-fed farms are especially at risk. They rely on seasonal rainfall rather than irrigation, so shifts in timing or intensity can quickly leave crops without enough water. When rains weaken, arrive too late, or stop too soon, farmers can lose part or all of their harvest.

More rain can create problems, too. Heavy rainfall does not always mean farms have more usable water, especially when rain falls in short, intense bursts. Much of it can run off the land rather than soak into the soil, and flooding often washes away fertile soil, damages crops, and even overwhelms drainage and irrigation systems.

El Niño can also push food prices higher. When harvests fail in a major farming region, the shock may move through global markets and raise prices in other countries. A 2023 European Central Bank analysis estimated that a strong El Niño could increase global food commodity prices by up to 9%. Soybeans, corn, and rice, which are used across the food system in animal feed, cooking oil, and processed food, are at the greatest risk for cost increases. 

This risk could worsen in 2026 due to the conflict in the Middle East. In the two months after the war began, the World Bank reported that global food prices rose 5%, while grain prices rose 3%. These rising costs can make basic foods even more expensive, especially for households that already spend a large share of their income on food.

For low-income families, even small increases in food prices can be serious. Higher costs may force some households to buy less nutritious food. The impacts can continue even after El Niño ends. Damaged roads, irrigation systems, and storage facilities can affect future planting seasons. Farmers who lose income during one season may have fewer resources to buy seeds, fertilizer, labor, or equipment for the next season.

Making Food Systems More Resilient

A strong El Niño could place new pressure on a food system that is already under stress, reducing harvests, raising food prices, damaging infrastructure, and deepening hunger in vulnerable communities. This potential crisis makes the shift to sustainable and resilient food production even more urgent.

Regenerative agriculture can help farmers build resilience to El Niño by managing food production to restore soil health, support biodiversity, and strengthen ecosystems. One approach is reduced or zero tillage, which limits soil disturbance and helps the ground keep its structure, organic matter, and moisture. Farmers may also use cover crops to protect bare soil from erosion, heat, and water loss between growing seasons. Meanwhile, employing crop rotation helps maintain soil nutrients by rotating what is planted in a field over time, rather than growing the same crop repeatedly. Agroforestry can also be employed to grow trees alongside crops or pasture, where they provide shade, help retain water, and support biodiversity.  

Together, these regenerative practices can help farms better withstand shifting weather patterns, drought, and heavy rain. During dry periods, healthier soil can hold more moisture. Meanwhile, during heavy rainfall, the same soil can absorb more water, reducing erosion. Farmers planting a diverse variety of crops may also lower the risk of total loss when one crop fails.

Regenerative agriculture can also reduce farmers’ dependence on expensive synthetic fertilizers and pesticides. With fewer products to buy, farms become less exposed to rising prices or unstable supply chains.

Farmers cannot adopt regenerative practices alone. They need funding, training, secure land rights, and access to markers to make these changes possible and lasting. Resources such as early warning systems, digital tools, and farmer support programs can also help them prepare for future El Niño events.

The Path Forward

El Niño is a recurring climate pattern, but food crises do not have to be recurring outcomes.

As the next El Niño approaches, the need for more sustainable food production is becoming more urgent. Building healthier soils, mitigating climate change, supporting farmers, and investing in resilient food systems can help communities prepare for the next major shock.

To learn more about how regenerative agriculture can help build more resilient food systems, explore EARTHDAY.ORG’s Regenerative Agriculture campaign.

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